Is AI Smarter than Donald Trump?
Jonathan Cloud January 26th, 2025
Something led me to start reading the text of Donald Trump’s Executive Order on energy, “Unleashing American Energy,” and I was astonished to discover an assault on an economic and scientific concept, the “social cost of carbon.”
The calculation of the “social cost of carbon” is marked by logical deficiencies, a poor basis in empirical science, politicization, and the absence of a foundation in legislation. Its abuse arbitrarily slows regulatory decisions and, by rendering the United States economy internationally uncompetitive, encourages a greater human impact on the environment by affording less efficient foreign energy producers a greater share of the global energy and natural resource market. Consequently, within 60 days of the date of this order, the Administrator of the EPA shall issue guidance to address these harmful and detrimental inadequacies, including consideration of eliminating the “social cost of carbon” calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision. ((Source))
It’s been some years since Delton Chen and I worked on the real cost of carbon emissions on the planet, and I don’t remember all the arguments we made, except that we also distinguished a separate “risk cost of carbon” that took into account more than just the immediate deleterious effects of increasing greenhouse gases. But while we may not like estimating and reporting on the economic costs of increased carbon pollution, it’s just not useful to stick our heads in the sand.
And I very much wonder who came up with the idea of simply doing away with the concept.
In any case, I decided to turn to AI for answers and found some remarkably coherent responses to my query, which referenced the EPA’s admittedly limited “social cost of carbon” metrics as well as some other sources. For anyone interested in understanding these rather arcane matters, I just published the results at Dead River Journal, using a mashup of ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and NotebookLM to create both a credible podcast episode and a blog post presenting the arguments. The short version is that ignoring the true costs of excess carbon emissions doesn’t make them go away; they’re just temporarily hidden from view.
The larger question is just how far the Executive Order sets back the effort to decarbonize our economy and what the long-term consequences are likely to be. Here’s what ChatGPT thinks:
President Trump’s Executive Order titled “Unleashing American Energy,” issued on January 20, 2025, outlines a policy shift favoring increased exploration and production of fossil fuels on federal lands and waters, aiming to bolster the United States’ position as a global energy leader. The order also seeks to eliminate the electric vehicle (EV) mandate and remove regulatory barriers to motor vehicle access, promoting consumer choice in vehicles.
**Likely Long-Term Consequences:**
1. **Increased Fossil Fuel Production:** By encouraging energy exploration and production on federal lands and waters, the Executive Order is likely to lead to a surge in fossil fuel extraction activities. This could result in higher greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to climate change and environmental degradation.
2. **Regulatory Rollbacks:** The directive to review and potentially rescind regulations that burden domestic energy production may lead to the weakening or elimination of environmental protections. This could have long-term negative impacts on air and water quality, wildlife habitats, and public health.
3. **Impact on Renewable Energy Development:** The emphasis on fossil fuels and the elimination of the EV mandate may discourage investment in renewable energy sources and technologies. This could slow the growth of the renewable energy sector, hindering progress toward a sustainable and low-carbon energy system.
4. **Economic and Geopolitical Implications:** While the Executive Order aims to strengthen national security and economic prosperity through energy independence, it may also lead to increased reliance on fossil fuel markets, which are subject to global price volatility. This could have long-term economic implications and affect the country’s geopolitical standing.
**Impact on Decarbonization Efforts:**
The Executive Order represents a significant setback to efforts aimed at decarbonizing the economy. By prioritizing fossil fuel development and rolling back regulations designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the order undermines initiatives to transition to cleaner energy sources. This shift in policy may result in:
– **Delayed Emission Reductions:** The increased focus on fossil fuels is likely to lead to higher carbon emissions, delaying progress toward emission reduction targets necessary to mitigate climate change.
– **Stalled Renewable Energy Progress:** The potential reduction in support for renewable energy projects and technologies may slow the adoption of clean energy solutions, making it more challenging to achieve a sustainable energy transition.
– **Regulatory Uncertainty:** The review and possible rescission of existing regulations create uncertainty for businesses and investors in the energy sector, potentially deterring investments in low-carbon technologies and infrastructure.
In summary, the “Unleashing American Energy” Executive Order is poised to have significant long-term consequences by promoting fossil fuel development and rolling back environmental regulations. These actions are likely to impede efforts to decarbonize the economy, exacerbating environmental challenges and delaying the transition to a sustainable energy future.
Ultimately, such a transition is both necessary and unavoidable, and in the wider lens, Trump’s energy policies will be seen as vain attempts to hold back the tide of history.